Monday, April 21, 2008

McCain's Electoral College Math

After reading this article in the American Thinker, I'm rethinking my wish for Hillary to be Dems' nominee. McCain certainly has challenges, first among them that he lags considerably in fund raising. However, an Obama win appears to help him when you do the electoral math.

Being a centrist Republican (Rhino! cough) will allow McCain to compete in a lot of states where a traditional Republican wouldn't have a chance. Arizona is a given for McCain and based on state specific polling he looks likely to win in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Missouri. This would likely give McCain 260 of the 270 electoral college votes he needs. He would need only 10 electoral votes from the following states that Bush won but are up for grabs: Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada; or from blue states that are within reach: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Hampshire. McCain leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and New Jersey. And get this, in a state not included in the above analysis, McCain currently has a 2 point lead on Obama in New York. Kerry won NY by 18%.

Obama has beaten up Clinton in the south. However, he's unlikely to win any of those states. Hillary would be more competitive with McCain in battle ground states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Obama appears to be a lock to win the nomination, but I think he has peaked too early. The more people learn about him (elitism, demeaning comments about rural folk, Jeremiah Wright, liberal voting record, etc.) the less they like him. With McCain, the opposite is true. It will be interesting to see what happens when Obama takes his focus off Hillary and takes on McCain.

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