Hack a Shaq

ESPN's John Hollinger has a great piece on a new milestone for Shaquille O'Neal: 5,000 missed free throws (regular season only). Shaq, probably the most dominant big man the NBA has ever seen, has averaged 52.5% for his career and has missed 4,995. He's still about 800 short of Wilt Chamberlain (51.1%).

As Hollinger notes, missing this many free throws requires two rare skills: an incredible ability to get to the free throw line and being absolutely horrible at the line. You'd have to miss 300 free throws a season every year of a long NBA career. Even if you shoot 50% and stay healthy, you'd have to attempt 8 a game. Dwight Howard is the only current player who might one day join the ranks of Wilt and Shaq in historic free throw ineptitude. He's only 23, has already missed 1,142 FTs and is averaging 5 misses a game this season.

Despite all of these misses, Hollinger theorizes that even if Shaq shot 70% from the line, it is doubtful that he would have won more than one additional championship. However, his career "player efficiency rating" (a stat Hollinger created), would go from 27.1, second only to Michael Jordan's 27.9, to 36.1 - far and away the best ever. 

A couple more factoids: 

• The top 12 FT shooters of all time combined to miss only 4,995 for their careers.
• If Larry Bird came out of retirement and missed 3,000 straight FTs, he'd still have a higher FT percentage than Shaq.
• Based on his career stats, Steve Nash would have to play 200 more seasons to match Shaq's 5,000 missed FTs. 

Basketball!

Yes, my beloved NBA is back. If only I could watch the Pistons every night. If you like the NBA as much as I do (I know it's much trendier to be into college basketball, so you don't have to tell anybody) check out Bill Simmons' preview on ESPN.com, it's pretty funny.

As for predictions, I think the Lakers make it back to the Finals, but the Celtics are really going to miss James Posey. The Cavs new scoring point guard, Mo Williams, puts them over the edge. Lakers beat the Cavs 4-2 in the Finals.

I'll differ from Simmons a little bit on my playoff teams. The East: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Chicago, Orlando, Miami, Washington. The West: Los Angeles, New Orleans, Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix, Utah, Dallas, Portland.

With the First Pick...

David Stern: The Chicago Bulls select Michael Beasley, from Kansas State.

A few minutes later...

Stern: The Chicago Bulls have traded the rights to Michael Beasley to the New Orleans Hornets for Tyson Chandler.

How much do you want to bet?

Actually, I'm guessing Derrick Rose will be coming back home to Chicago. Beasley is a great scorer, but John Paxson probably hopes Rose can do for the Bulls what Chris Paul did for the Hornets. The Bulls could turn into a very entertaining, up-tempo team with Rose leading the break as Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Larry Hughes fill the lanes and Ben Gordon spots up for three. The Central just got a little more interesting.

Mayo's Money

OJ Mayo (the gifted freshman guard from USC who is expected to be a top 10 pick in the NBA Draft in June) is accused of taking cash during his high school and college days from the agent who is now representing him. Listening to the commentary on ESPN radio today, I was struck by how most of the talking heads put the blame on either USC, the NCAA, or the NBA. The NBA now requires players to be at least one year removed from school to be eligible for the draft. According to these geniuses, that makes them culpable for creating a situation where Mayo-type situations are inevitable. In my mind, there are two parties to blame: OJ Mayo (and his family) and the agent and his cronies.

Doesn't the NBA, as a private organization, have the right to conduct it's business as it sees fit? They have decided that it's bad for business to draft 18 year olds and pay them millions (based on their performance against high school kids) to sit the bench (Jermaine O'Neal) while they learn to play. The NBA doesn't owe it to an OJ Mayo or Michael Beasley to let them enter whenever the player sees fit.

However, here's a plan that might improve things for everybody: anyone can declare for the draft out of high school, but if you are not taken in the top two picks, you can't be drafted. If un-drafted, you go to college or join the NBA's development league. The next year, you can be drafted, but must be taken in the top 5. The third year, you must be taken in the first round. This would allow the NBA to benefit from players who can be stars immediately (Lebron, Derrick Rose), but teams wouldn't be tempted to make risky picks on unproven athletes. The players would be more likely to get an education and for those who aren't college material, they could make a decent living and develop their game in the D-League.

To quote Walter Sobchak, "Am I wrong?"

NBA Playoff Predictions

OK, I'm not going to do a whole graphic thing like I did for the NFL playoffs (that took me way too long), but here are my predictions:

East
1st Round
Boston in 4 over Atlanta - The Hawks are just happy to be in the playoffs.
Cleveland in 5 over Washington - I have the benefit of already watching Game 1.
Orlando in 6 over Toronto - Dwight Howard is a person of unusual size and athleticism.
Detroit in 5 over Philadelphia - Detroit will forget to bring it for one game, as usual.

2nd Round
Boston in 6 over Cleveland - Nice job getting the 1st seed, Celtics. Have fun with Lebron.
Detroit in 5 over Orlando - Howard, Turkoglu, and Lewis are great, but what else is there?

Detroit in 7 over Boston - A great rivalry is restored.

West
1st Round
LA in 7 over Denver - The Nuggets can score. Defense? Not so much.
Utah in 7 over Houston - Tracy McGrady may never get past the 1st round.
Phoenix in 7 over San Antonio - Will Amare become the best player in the NBA?
New Orleans in 6 over Dallas - Jason Kidd is a very poor man's Chris Paul.

2nd Round
LA in 5 over Utah - Yes, Utah is underrated. That doesn't mean they can handle Kobe.
Phoenix in 7 over New Orleans - I can't wait to see the match-up between Nash and Paul.

Phoenix in 7 over LA - The Lakers are more than the Kobe show, but Phoenix still has a few more weapons.

Finals: Detroit in 7 over Phoenix - The Western Conference is playing for second. Whoever comes out will be too beat up to handle Detroit or Boston.

Ridiculous

Apparently these are the 10 best dunks of all time. I would have put Tom Chambers a little higher. And what about Vince Carter's dunk contest a couple years back?