Primary Update

Last week we had five viable candidates for the Republican nomination. Romney's win in Nevada, McCain's win in South Carolina, and the current polling data in Florida seem to have narrowed the field down to two. Giuliani's "the first six primaries/caucuses don't matter" strategery has backfired. He needs a miracle to win Florida and resurrect his campaign. The latest poll has Romney at 25%, McCain 20%, and Giuliani 19%. This was before Thompson pulled out, and most of those votes will probably go to Romney. Whoever wins Florida will be the unquestioned front runner going into super Tuesday. 

A McCain/Romney match up (I would have preferred a Romney/Giuliani contest) will be about fundamental differences in opinion. Will the Republican party continue to stand for the free market, pro-growth policies and the rule of law? Or will we nominate a candidate that uses class warfare to oppose tax cuts, bashes big business, favors amnesty for illegal immigrants, and wants to destroy our economy with massive global warming taxes?

Note to Democrats: our race is actually about issues. Yours is about one thing: race. 

On to New Hampshire

A big win for Huckabee last night in Iowa. However, this probably helps McCain more than Huckabee. I'm skeptical that Huckabee's shtick will play well in New Hampshire or Florida, although South Carolina is a maybe. McCain gets a boost for Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, where he has a slim lead over Romney. Governor Romney is easy to take shots at (changing his views on abortion, Mormonism, etc.) but there is no perfect candidate. Thompson's campaign has been very disappointing. He would have been a better Vice Presidential candidate had he not run in the first place. Romney is the only one running as a full spectrum conservative that is a viable candidate. Republicans may choose to reject conservatism and give Jimmy Carter Jr. (Huckabee) a try, or maybe the preeminent RHINO (Republican in name only), McCain. Romney needs to take a few of these early primaries or else no one will be able to stop Giuliani. I am warming up to Giuliani, hopefully the base can too if he wins.

CNN/Youtube Debate

I'm not sure who the winner of Wednesday's debate was, but the clear loser is CNN. They flew in a member of Hillary's campaign to debate the candidates on gays in the military when all of the questioners were supposed to be undecided Republicans. CNN would have realized that many of the questioners were actually Democrat plants if they had done a minute's worth of research online and I don't think anybody's buying their story that they didn't know who the gays in the military guy was. Many of the questions CNN chose revealed their view of Republican voters: crazy gun lovers and religious weirdos. One questioner wanted to the candidates to comment on his Confederate flag. We get the message, CNN: Republicans are kooks. CNN is a joke, yet it's the Democrats who refused to even go on Fox News for a debate.

As far as the candidates (click here for transcript), I thought Rudy got creamed, especially on illegal immigration. Thompson was good, but not great. He had solid answers to every question, I'm confident in his conservative values and character, but he just hasn't excited me yet. Huckabee was good, although he did take shots on taxes. He had a great line, when asked about expanding the space program: "maybe Hillary could be on the first rocket to Mars." No one addressed his huge weaknesses in understanding a free-market economy (see my entry below). Romney scored some points early on Rudy, but seemed to waffle on a couple questions. However, he firmly responded to criticsm from Thompson on his abortion record: "I was wrong." Romney noted that he had his change of heart soon after becoming governor and vetoed every abortion rights expanding bill that came across his desk. I think Romney made a mistake though in wasting all his ammo on Rudy. He should have targeted Huckabee's lack of conservative credentials, as Huckabee is a greater threat in the early primaries.

Romney's Lead Widens

Mitt Romney has opened up a twelve point lead over Giuliani in New Hampshire, while maintaining a large lead in Iowa. Giuliani still leads nationally, but some are now saying that Romney should now be considered the Republican front runner. If Romney takes the first two primaries (Iowa and NH) he will get a big boost in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Giuliani has neglected Iowa and NH, instead focusing on states like New Jersey and California, and now it may be too late.
"Mayor Giuliani keeps hanging his hat on national polls that show him getting around 30% support, yet fully 100% of the electorate knows who he is. That is a very big gulf to have between the number of voters that know him and the number that support him," says a spokesman for the Romney campaign.
Giuliani is not being helped by the federal indictment of Bernard Kerik, the NYC police commissioner while he was mayor. Giuliani had recommended Kerik to President Bush as a nominee for secretary of homeland security in 2004. Kerik is accused of accepting free renovations to his home in exchange for lobbying for a firm to get a government contract.
Romney's got momentum - now's the time to join the bandwagon.

Romney Wins Iowa Straw Poll

Mitt Romney was expected to win it, and he won big, with 32% of the vote. Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson did not participate. Giuliani and McCain because they knew they would lose, and Thompson is not officially running for President yet. Romney has been focusing on the first two states to hold primaries - Iowa and New Hampshire. This win doesn't make him the favorite by any means, but I think it does put him in the top three with Giuliani and Thompson. However, Romney is taking the tried and true approach to winning the GOP nomination: court social and economic conservatives and spend money in the early states to propel you to victory in the others. Once Romney separates himself from the crowd of Brownbacks, Huckabees, Tancredos, etc., he can show voters that he is the conservative option compared with the moderate Giuliani, Thompson, or McCain. Giuliani is taking a novel approach to the nomination by skipping Iowa and New Hampshire and focusing on getting moderates who aren't big primary voters to come out for him in New York, Illinois, Florida, California, etc. Giuliani still leads the polls, but as the race narrows, I think Romney will start to pick up the conservatives that are supporting the second tier candidates. I believe Romney is the best choice for conservatives who want a candidate who can articulate conservatism and who is strong on defense, family values, and the economy.

Romney Update

Mitt Romney's smart campaign appears to be paying dividends. He is leading the Republican candidates in New Hampshire and Iowa, which is huge because these states are the first to vote in the primaries. If Romney wins these states, the momentum would give him a big boost and might help him beat Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson in other states. Romney currently trails Giuliani and McCain in the national polls, but I expect McCain to fall by the wayside as he can't seem to raise any money. As I've written earlier, I like Romney for president. He is easily the brightest and most articulate of the candidates. He is conservative on national defense, immigration, abortion, and taxes. He has the intellect and charisma to beat Hillary, does anybody else? Much has been made of how his views have changed on abortion. However, the only question voters should ask when considering the issue is what kind of judge the candidate would put on the Supreme Court. Romney would go for a constructionist judge, which would likely overrule Roe v. Wade. As far as the other candidates, Giuliani and McCain aren't conservatives. Thompson? I'm waiting to see more, but I think people like him mainly because he was on Law & Order, he's not Giuliani/McCain and he's not Mormon. Anybody else have a shot? I don't think so, but let me know if there's someone else I should pay attention to.

Romney Wins

The GOP candidates (minus Fred Thompson) had their first debate tonight. Mitt Romney (my current favorite, although I'm interested in Thompson) seemed to come out on top, despite ridiculous questions from the MSNBC moderators. Examples: "What do you dislike most about America?" (to Romney), “Thousands of reputable scientists have concluded, with almost certainty, that human activity is responsible for the warming of the Earth. Do you believe global warming exists?” (Huckabee), “Will you work to protect women's rights, as in fair wages and reproductive choice?” (Tancredo), “Bradley Winter of New York would like to know if there's anything you learned, or regret, during your time as Mayor in your dealings with the African-American community?” (Giuliani), as well as questions meant to embarrass the candidates (the difference between Shia/Sunni, how many dead in Iraq, etc.). The unscientific poll on Drudge has Romney winning the debate with 34% over Giuliani's 21% and McCain's 6%. Peggy Noonan at WSJ gives the advantage to Romney and thinks Giuliani bombed. Romney comes off as the most intelligent and polished and is certainly more conservative than Giuliani and McCain. Romney's obstacles are convincing the right of his pro-life turnaround and the whole Mormonism thing. Giuliani, as he showed by wavering tonight on whether or not the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade, rejects deeply held beliefs of much of the base. I admit that being a Mormon is a big negative, but I still believe Romney has the strength, character, experience, intelligence, and charisma to be a great president and spokesman for the conservative movement. Check out Romney's website for more information.