Monday, March 08, 2010

2010 Senate Races

I am not an expert, but from analyzing the most recent polls I’ve come up with a quick break down of the 2010 US Senate races. 36 seats are up for grabs in November, 18 currently held by Democrats and 18 held by Republicans. If the election were held today, I think the Republicans would pick up at least 5 seats and as many as 11. The current Senate has 57 Democrats, 2 Independents (in name only) that caucus with the Democrats, and 41 Republicans. While many are predicting that the Republicans will take back the House, they are unlikely to take back the Senate in November. However, by picking up 5-8 seats they will strengthen their ability to protect America from Obama’s left wing agenda and set the stage for taking back the Senate in 2012. A lot can change between now and November, but things look good for the GOP.

The breakdown:

10 seats are in the bank for the Republicans: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona (although I’m not holding out much hope for McCain’s conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth), Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah.

5 seats are in the bank for the Democrats: Hawaii, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont.

2 seats strongly Democrat (but then again, so was Massachusetts): Washington and Connecticut

8 seats strongly Republican: Iowa, Florida (Marco Rubio, a conservative rising star in the Republican party, is trouncing moderate Charlie Crist for the nomination), Louisiana, North Carolina, Delaware (Mike Castle is crushing Coons by 18 points for Biden’s former seat, no wonder Biden’s son pulled out), Nevada (Harry Reid trails Sue Lowden by 13 points), Kentucky (both Republican candidates for Jim Bunning’s vacated seat are outpolling both Democratic candidates by double digits – Ron Paul’s son Rand is the likely Republican nomineee) and North Dakota.

Ok, so far that’s 18 seats for the Republicans and 7 for the Democrats. Of the remaining 12 seats, any seat the Republicans win is a gain. Here’s where it gets interesting.

5 seats lean Republican:

Colorado: both Republican candidates are polling ahead of current Sen. Bennet (D) by 6-9 points.

Missouri: Kit Bond is retiring, but Roy Blunt (R) up 7 points on Robin Carnahan (D).

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg is retiring, but likely GOP nominee Kelly Ayotte leads Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 7 points.

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln (D) is in a primary fight, but should hang on. However, she trails likely Republican nominee Congressman John Boozman by 9 points.

Indiana: Evan Bayh’s retirement may have handed the seat to former Indiana Senator Dan Coats (R).

6 seats are tossups:

New York (Gillebrand): Former Governor Pataki is neck and neck with Gillebrand (D) in the polls, but hasn’t decided yet if he will run.

Illinois: Roland Burris is retiring (as if he had a choice) and centrist Republican Congressman Mark Kirk has a modest lead on 33 year old Alexi Giannoulias who just bankrupted his wealthy family’s bank under his leadership (he has cited this as a reason to vote for him – he feels your economic pain). This is Obama’s senate seat – would be a huge victory for the GOP.

California: Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of HP and tea-partier Chuck DeVore are both polling within about 5 points of Barbara Boxer, believe it or not.

Wisconsin: Former Governor Tommy Thompson is polling slightly ahead of liberal Russ Feingold. Hopefully he chooses to run.

Ohio: Rob Portman (R) is up 5 or 6 points on likely Democratic nominee.

Pennsylvania: The polls have been see-sawing a bit in this race between the likely Republican nominee, former Club for Growth president and US Representative Pat Toomey and current Democrat Arlen Spector.

As we’ve learned during the Bush years, it’s not good enough to have Republicans in Congress, we need conservative Republicans. Many of these candidates are quite conservative. I am excited about Marco Rubio, I think he is presidential material down the road.

The news should get even better for the Republicans in the 2012 Senate elections. 33 seats will be up for grabs, 23 Democrats (I've included the two Independents) and only 10 Republicans. This math creates greater opportunities for the GOP to establish a strong majority in the Senate.

No comments: